Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know: A Practical Guide to Heuristics, Probability, Game Theory, Scenario Planning, & Effective Decision Making

1. Introduction to Decision Making

Chapter Summary

Discussion Questions

2. Cognitive Processes and Their Limitations

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Information Processing Issues

2.3 Prospect Theory

2.4 Mental Accounting

Chapter Summary

Discussion Questions

3. Gathering Data: How Much is Enough?

3.1. Speed of a Decision

Chapter Summary

Discussion Questions

4. Group Mechanics

4.1. Introduction

4.2. Informal Consultations

4.3 Formal Consultations

4.4 Brainstorming

4.5 Groupthink

Chapter Summary

Discussion Questions

5. Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets

5.1. Scenario Planning

5.2. Prediction Markets

Chapter Summary

Discussion Questions

6. Heuristics and Programmed Decisions

6.1. Heuristics

6.2. Programmed Decision Making

Chapter Summary

Discussion Questions

7. Probability and Base Rate Neglect

7.1. The Law

7.2. Accounting for Contingent Liabilities

7.3 Using Probability in Decision Making

7.4 Expected Value

7.5 Decision Trees

7.6 Bayesian Inference

Chapter Summary

Discussion Questions

Test Your Knowledge

8. The SMART Method

8.1. Using the SMART Method

Chapter Summary

Discussion Questions

9. EBA and Even Swaps

9.1. Even Swaps

9.2 Other Alternatives to SMART

9.3 Will You Always Get the Same Result?

Chapter Summary

Discussion Questions

10. Sensitivity Analysis

10.1. Kicking the Tires

10.2 High-Low Sensitivity Analysis

Chapter Summary

Discussion Questions

11. Negotiating and Selling the Final Decision

11.1. Negotiations

11.2 Asymmetric Information

11.3 Coordination Problems

11.4 Game Theory

11.5 Walking Away From the Deal

11.6 Selling the Decision

Chapter Summary

Discussion Questions

Glossary

Bibliography

Mark Koscinski is an assistant professor of accounting practice at Moravian College in Bethlehem, PA, where he teaches a graduate level Decision Analysis class and several advanced accounting classes. He is a certified public accountant, and holds a BA with high honors and MBA from Rutgers University and a doctorate from Drew University. Prior to joining the faculty at Moravian College, Mark was a chief financial officer of various public and private organizations in the defense contracting, toy, investment banking, and banking industries. He has over forty years of experience in the business world, and has supervised every operation of an organization including sales and marketing. Mark is passionate about sharing his knowledge with his students. His background and experience gives him a unique position to write on management topics that are easy to understand for non-MBA graduates.

Vibrant Publishers is focused on presenting the best texts for learning about technology and business as well as books for test preparation. Categories include programming, operating systems and other texts focused on IT. In addition, a series of books helps professionals in their own disciplines learn the business skills needed in their professional growth.

Vibrant Publishers has a standardized test preparation series covering the GMAT, GRE and SAT, providing ample study and practice material in a simple and well organized format, helping students get closer to their dream universities.

The Self-Learning Management Series is designed to help students, new managers, career switchers, and entrepreneurs learn essential management lessons and covers every aspect of business, from HR to Finance to Marketing to Operations across any and every industry. Each book includes basic fundamentals, important concepts, and standard and well-known principles as well as practical ways of application of the subject matter.

This is the first book that I've read that details decision-making with such depth. Mark Koscinki is able to take seemingly complicated information and break it down into short, easy-to-understand chapters, summarize the key points, and offer questions to ensure one's understanding of decision-making processes. I recommend it to those in leadership and to those aspiring to leadership roles!
-- Jacqueline Childress, Austin Community College

The greatest threat to my business success and survival in the early years was the quality of my decision making. I did not know what I did not know and that made solid decision making risky. Every poor decision provided a lesson to learn and the motivation not to make the same mistake twice. As the business grew so grew the significance of the decisions. I never tire of learning new decision making models, practicing my decision making and helping others to learn as well. Decision Making Essentials is a great way to refresh my skillfulness and develop those around me. Being a strong process decision maker has contributed to my consulting effectiveness and value-added to my client relationships.
-- Leslie Yerkes Founder, Catalyst Consulting Group, Inc.

In this unparalleled textbook, Mark Koscinski has done an excellent job providing the relevant keys to effective decision-making. By providing the necessary details of transforming decision-making into success, Mark Koscinski takes the simple art of choosing into a science that allows managers to consistently make those choices that benefit the workplace.
-- Sonja B. Wilson, President at Wilson's Professional Training Services, Inc.

As a college professor I am constantly looking for ways to incorporate decision making skills into my classes and this is the perfect book. My students are provided with a flexible system that makes sense in today's world. My students will be able to learn how to make decisions based on the theory we are learning!
-- Heather Nestorick, Luzerne County Community College

I think the book is a great addition to the Management Series. The author has included numerous examples to illustrate the concept which makes it easier to understand and follow. Some of the chapters seem to be a bit technical but overall the book is quite helpful for a beginner or businessman to successfully accomplish his decision making responsibilities.
-- Tony Ruscitto, Corporate Director of HR, Fitzpatrick Hotel Group, North America

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